Delegates, Superdelegates, and current delegate counts

[EMUJeff]

Just because the system isn't confusing enough...
Aside from the delegates assigned to the candidates based on primary voting, each party has a group of delegates called Superdelegates. These are leaders from each party that are sent to the national conventions and are allowed to vote how they wish. They don't represent anything but their own views and, more than likely, what they see as the best for their parties. Though their numbers (150 Republicans and 796 Democrats) are small in a close race they can make all the difference. Often they will delcare who they are supporting so people know. Additionally, Superdelegates, as leaders of their state parties, are most usefull if no single candidate has 50% of the delegates on the first ballot. They would spread out and try to influence each other and the less experienced regular delegates.
The Republicans have a total of 2,380 delegates heading to the convention. This means that 6.3% of the total are Superdelegates. A candidate needs at least 1,191 delegates for the nomination.
The Democrats currently have a total of 4,049 delegates to their convention. This means Superdelegates constitute 19.6% of the total. A candidate needs at least 2,025 delegates for the nomination.
Here are the counts as printed January 20th. Delegate totals as of 10pm, January 20th in the Republican Party with 1,191 needed for nomination:
Romney 72
McCain 38
Huckabee 29
Thompson 8
Paul 6
Giuliani 2
Keyes 0

Delegate totals as of 10pm, January 20th in the Democratic Party with 2,025 needed for nomination:
Clinton 211
Obama 122
Edwards 52
Kucinich 1
Gravel 0
Senators Clinton and Obama have won the same number of delegates from voters in State contests (37). The difference in their delegate total comes from Sen. Clinton having the support of 174 superdelegates (party elite with a vote at the convention) while Sen. Obama has received support from 85 superdelegates. Sen. Edwards has 34 of these. Gov. Bill Richardson had commitements from 19 superdelegates, but cut them loose and many have reselected. There are currently only 21 supedelgates who have not chosen a candidate.


Please Note: the information here is intended so we can better understand the process not to sway voters to or away from any candidate. Remember most delegates are determined by the votes of the people. Let's make sure our voice is heard.
EMUJeff

[EMUJeff]

Delegate counts provided as an estimate. Because not all my sources have received the same information on who some of the Superdelegates will back, exact counts aren't possible. Here are the numbers form two of my main sources; The Associated Press, and Wikipedia who shadows CNN reports. Beginning with the Republicans:
Name.......................................AP count.........................Wiki count
Sen. John McCain......................102...................................111
Gov. Mitt Romney.........................93......................................94
Gov. Mike Huckabee...................46......................................29
Rep. Dr. Ron Paul.........................6.........................................6
Alan Keyes......................................0.........................................0
Counts do not include Maine's caucus held this last weekend as both the total votes have not yet been released by the Maine Republican Party and none 21 delegates to the national convention who will be selected at the state convention this weekend are bound by the vote anyway.
Today's Super Tuesday will decide how 1,023 delegates will be divided. 9 of the 21 states voting today are "winner take all". That means for those 9 states the person with the most votes gets all that states delegates. 1,091 delegates are needed for the nomination. That makes it unlikely we will have an out and out winner, but the national flavor of this day may give us a front runner.

Next the Democrats:
Name.......................................AP count.........................Wiki count
Sen. Hillary Clinton....................261....................................232
Sen. Barack Obama..................196....................................158
Sen. John Edwards (out)............26......................................26
Sen. Mike Gravel.............................0.........................................0
Count differences include mostly how the Superdelegates, the party leaders who chose for themselves who to support, are perceived to have fallen in behind one candidate or another. AP indicates more of these for both candidates. It is unclear if or when John Edwards will release his remaining 26 delegates (his superdelegates have picked other candidates since he dropped out). He may hold them all the way to the convention if he wishes.
Super Tuesday voting will occur in 22 states for the Democratic Party yeilding 1,681 committed delegates. All of the states, to my knowledge, dedicate delegates based on the candidates proportion of the vote. Therefore, since the polls indicate nationally there is no clear leader, voter turn out will determine if there will be a clear leader emerging from this day. Currently 2,025 delegates are required to gain the nomination.
It is, perhaps, important to note that Obama has received more delegates based on voting than Clinton, but she has received the endorsement of a greater percentage of superdelegates (party leaders).
Enjoy tonights festivities. I am predicting that it will be about 5 am before we know if there is a clear leader emerging from either party or if the results let us know more about how the nation is divided up on these candidates.
EMUJeff

[EMUJeff]

Please note: There is currently an effort to reinstate (reseat) the Michigan and Florida delegations in the Democratic party. If this happens the total number of delegates would become 4,415 (up from the current 4,049) with 2,208 being needed for nomination (up from the current 2,025).
This favors Senator Clinton, as she holds 55% of the votes in Michigan (where Senator Obama was not on the ballot) and 50% in Florida (to Senator Obama's 33).
If they were reinstated the state parties estimate 178 delegates would go to Senator Clinton, 67 to Senator Obama, and 13 would be added to Senator Edwards. That would leave 108 delegates combining 55 uncommitted from Michigan and 53 Superdelegates from both states party leadership who are free to vote their own preference. Of the 53 Super delegates from these two states 12 have stated they support Clinton, 3 are stating support for Senator Obama.
The aspirins and ibuprofens are in the medicine cabinet.
:slider_usaflag1:
EMUJeff

[EMUJeff]

I promise this is my last post until results come in, really.
The 9 states in the Republican Super Tuesday Primaries that are "Winner Take All" are Arizona (50), Connecticut (27), Delaware (15), Missouri (55), Montana (22), New Jersey (49), New York (98), North Dakota (23), and Utah (33). This constitutes 372 delegates of the 1,023 selected tonight.
All the Democratic Super Tuesday Primaries delegates are awarded proportional to their vote percentages for any candidate that wins 15% or more of the statewide popular vote. Since the likelyhood is that Senator Gravel will not obtain the 15% in any given state all delegates will be divided between Senators Clinton and Obama.
EMUJeff

[Harrison]

I don't know how you keep it straight!

[Cherub]

Confuses me too

[EMUJeff]

I don't know how you keep it straight!
Scads of coffee, Sunkist orange, and three really helpful websites
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/tally.phtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_presidential_primaries
and http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/
All three have primers on them that explain more than any of us want to know.
Thanks for your kind words.
EMUJeff

[Cherub]

I can't help but wonder if the politicians try to confuse the general public on purpose

What other reason would there be for having things set up the way they are?

[EMUJeff]

I think it starts when smaller states look for ways to make themselves more important in the process. I guess they figure that will earn their pay.
The silly thing is letting the state parties individually choose how to set these things up. It's a hodge-podge and not so useful or user friendly.
EMUJeff

[Cherub]

Wouldn't it be easier if all states had these primaries all on the same day

Just get it over with all at the same time and $$$

Or perhaps that just makes too much sense

[Mayday]

It wouldn't be fair to states that don't have alot of delegates. Candidates would not even bother with them at all and just campaign in the big states.

[Cherub]

It wouldn't be fair to states that don't have alot of delegates. Candidates would not even bother with them at all and just campaign in the big states.

What wouldn't be fair?

[Mayday]

States with small amounts of delegates would not get a chance to see the candidates and hear what they stand for. I'm sure that 1 minute tv ads would be playing constantly, but those would not give people enough information to form an intelligent opinion. I could see them doing sections at the same time, but not everyone. JMHO.

[Cherub]

This is why I think it would be good for all of the races be run at the same time in every state and be based on the popular vote

Let the majority of the people decide

And if all votes in all states are on the same day it wouldn't give the politicians much of a chance to politic in every state

I believe by doing things this way it would get the true opinions people have of the delegates and not the opinions influenced by politicin

[Mayday]

I appreciate your opinion on this Cherub.

[Cherub]

Thanx

As always you're right there with Robin as the bestest ever:motocanaglia_smack: and the :23_146_5[1]:

I just hope I never have to choose:motocanaglia_nonono

It would jist be too hard:motocanaglia_baston

[EMUJeff]

An overall election would give all the power to the largest 10 states. The smaller ones wouldn't matter so much.
There have been several proposals for the next election cycle, though.
One would have 4 regional primarys (Northeast, South, West, Midwest), each two or three weeks apart with the region that goes first rotatiing. The advantage is that no one set of states would get all the attention as now happens with Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
One would have 5 days of primaries with the 10 smallest states going first and each progressive week the next smallest 10. This gives the smaller states some say early on. The down side is that candidates would be spread all over the country, but that happens now anyway once we get past the first four of five.
Another is to make all states alot delegates by proportion instead of the number of "winner take all" states that occur currently in the Republican party.
I am sure some others will come down soon, including one to limit the number of superdelegates in the Democratic Party.
EMUJeff