EMUJeff
March 4th, 2008, 3:58 pm
Ask not for whom the bell tolls, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont. It tolls for thee.
There are 370 Democratic and 256 Republican Delegates that will be awarded as a result of today's primaries, though 67 of the Democratic ones won't be awarded until June 7th (We'll get into that later- grab your pain meds). Here is how they divide up-
Democratic Delegates Available
Ohio: 141
Rhode Island: 21
Texas (Primary): 126
Texas (Caucus): 67
Vermont: 15
Republican Delegates Available
Ohio: 85
Rhode Island: 17
Texas: 137
Vermont: 17
For the GOP nomination (requiring 1,191 to win) current Delegate count for Senator McCain are listed at 1,047 by both CNN and Wikipedia, who use GreenPages.com counts to esitmate. With Texas alone giving 137 delegates to any candidate that obtains more than 50% of the vote, Senator McCain could sew up the nomination with a win there and any one of the other states today. If Governor Huckabee wins with more than 50% of the vote in Texas then Senator McCain can't obtain the proper number of delegates until a later primary.
On the Democratic side Senator Obama has between 1,378 and 1.393 delegates according to which source is being used. This discrepency is accounted for in the differing superdelegate counts each campaign claims (See Superdelegates and how they work (http://lincolnparkforums.com/showthread.php?t=15373&highlight=superdelegates)).
Senator Clinton has between 1,269 and 1,276 delegates with 2,025 needed for the nomination. Neither candidate can claim enough delegates today to lock up the nomination. Many news outlets, none the less, paint this as the make or break day for these candidates. Certainly either one who walks away from this "Mini Tuesday" with a strong showing can claim momentum.
Since most of the primaries in the Democratic Party award delegates on a proportional basis, that is the percentage of votes received corresponds to the number of delegates awarded, it is harder to make up the gap between the leader and the challanger. In the GOP many of the states are have "Winner Take All" options so anyone obtaining 50% of the vote gets all the delegates. This makes it easier for a candidate with just a few wins to rack up a substantial number of delegates. With the Democratic method the Candidate who wins 51% of the vote on a day like this would only obtain around 189 delegates while their challenger could still get 181, meaning only an 8 delegate advantage.
This takes us to our headache moment of the day...Texas.
For some reason only known to those who made the rules, Texas allows everyone up to two opportunties to vote on the Democratic side this year. Central Time, from 7 am to 7 pm the normal precinct polls are open for normal primary balloting. From these votes delegates will be awarded proportionally per district based on the percentage of votes the candidates receive. Those results, and how those 126 delegates are divided, will be known within hours of the polls closing.
At 7:15pm CT, however, there will be causcus', much like the Iowa system, held all over the state in which people can vote again.
As we discussed on other primary occassions, this is an open primary in both parties so one can vote in either without being a member of the party. This also means that someone can vote in the Repbulican or Democratic Primary in the daytime and then go over to the Democratic Caucus and vote again. This is the only state where this can be done by anyone other than a superdelegate.
Those votes taken at the caucus' will be tabulated and 67 delegates will be chosen at the June 7th State Convention
Results will be posted as they come in.
EMUJeff
There are 370 Democratic and 256 Republican Delegates that will be awarded as a result of today's primaries, though 67 of the Democratic ones won't be awarded until June 7th (We'll get into that later- grab your pain meds). Here is how they divide up-
Democratic Delegates Available
Ohio: 141
Rhode Island: 21
Texas (Primary): 126
Texas (Caucus): 67
Vermont: 15
Republican Delegates Available
Ohio: 85
Rhode Island: 17
Texas: 137
Vermont: 17
For the GOP nomination (requiring 1,191 to win) current Delegate count for Senator McCain are listed at 1,047 by both CNN and Wikipedia, who use GreenPages.com counts to esitmate. With Texas alone giving 137 delegates to any candidate that obtains more than 50% of the vote, Senator McCain could sew up the nomination with a win there and any one of the other states today. If Governor Huckabee wins with more than 50% of the vote in Texas then Senator McCain can't obtain the proper number of delegates until a later primary.
On the Democratic side Senator Obama has between 1,378 and 1.393 delegates according to which source is being used. This discrepency is accounted for in the differing superdelegate counts each campaign claims (See Superdelegates and how they work (http://lincolnparkforums.com/showthread.php?t=15373&highlight=superdelegates)).
Senator Clinton has between 1,269 and 1,276 delegates with 2,025 needed for the nomination. Neither candidate can claim enough delegates today to lock up the nomination. Many news outlets, none the less, paint this as the make or break day for these candidates. Certainly either one who walks away from this "Mini Tuesday" with a strong showing can claim momentum.
Since most of the primaries in the Democratic Party award delegates on a proportional basis, that is the percentage of votes received corresponds to the number of delegates awarded, it is harder to make up the gap between the leader and the challanger. In the GOP many of the states are have "Winner Take All" options so anyone obtaining 50% of the vote gets all the delegates. This makes it easier for a candidate with just a few wins to rack up a substantial number of delegates. With the Democratic method the Candidate who wins 51% of the vote on a day like this would only obtain around 189 delegates while their challenger could still get 181, meaning only an 8 delegate advantage.
This takes us to our headache moment of the day...Texas.
For some reason only known to those who made the rules, Texas allows everyone up to two opportunties to vote on the Democratic side this year. Central Time, from 7 am to 7 pm the normal precinct polls are open for normal primary balloting. From these votes delegates will be awarded proportionally per district based on the percentage of votes the candidates receive. Those results, and how those 126 delegates are divided, will be known within hours of the polls closing.
At 7:15pm CT, however, there will be causcus', much like the Iowa system, held all over the state in which people can vote again.
As we discussed on other primary occassions, this is an open primary in both parties so one can vote in either without being a member of the party. This also means that someone can vote in the Repbulican or Democratic Primary in the daytime and then go over to the Democratic Caucus and vote again. This is the only state where this can be done by anyone other than a superdelegate.
Those votes taken at the caucus' will be tabulated and 67 delegates will be chosen at the June 7th State Convention
Results will be posted as they come in.
EMUJeff