EMUJeff
April 20th, 2008, 10:15 pm
Well after a six week hiatus which felt more liberating than the two months during the television writer's strike, we are back in the Primary season with Pennsylvania the only state in question. Here are the current standings...
Democratic nomination info as of Saturday April 19, 2008
2,025 of 4,048 for nomination
Sen. Clinton.............Sen. Obama..............Sen. Edwards
Popular Vote (w/o IA, NV, ME, WA who don’t release totals)
13,870,038................13,975,936......................952,399
Delegate Count (with est. Superdelegate totals)
....1,506........................1,646..............................18
Delegate Count (if FL and MI seated)*
....1,699........................1,718..............................31
Penn.: 158 delegates avail. (+29 Superdelegates available)
Total votes so far- 29,468,639 (difference of 670,266 votes: 270,578 undecided, 104,032 Gov. Richardson, 99,950 Rep. Kucinich, 79,782 Sen. Biden, 58,445 void, blank, no preference, or other, 34,630 Sen. Dodd, and 22,849 Sen. Gravel).
*Unseated/unseated delegates Michigan 157 delegates (128 elected, 29 super), Florida 211 (185 elected, 26 super) not included in delegate total but in voter numbers. 2,209 delegates would be needed to win nomination if these delegates are added.
Republican nomination info as of Saturday April 19, 2008
1,191 of 2,380 for nomination
..Sen. McCain...........Gov. Romney........Gov. Huckabee........Rep. Paul
Popular Vote (w/o IA, NV, ME, WA who don’t release totals)
.....7,432,372..........4,529,666...........3,907,695..........803,093
Delegate Count (with est. Superdelegate totals)
........1,293................203....................257..................28
Penn.: 62 delegates available from voters (9 elected at state convention June 6 + 3 Superdelegates)
Total votes so far- 17,729,263 (Difference of 1,056,437 votes: 586,402 Mayor Giuliani, 286,917 Sen. Thompson with 11 delegates, 90,890 among 5 other candidates, 49,816 uncommitted or no preference indicated, and 42,412 among all other candidates).
We will have results on Tuesday night with a full reporting on the final ending on Wednesday evening.
There are several outcomes from this which might have a permanent effect on the running.
There are 158 delegates available as a direct result of the Democratic Primary on that evening. There will be 35 at large delegates chosen in the overall vote with most of the rest chosen per district. The Primary is being run as a closed primary meaning only those who declare as Democrats are allowed to vote.
With around a 140 delegate lead, Senator Obama could make inroads to the nomination were he to pull more than 90 or so of the 158 available. Currently, Senator Obama requires 379 more of the remaining 878 delegates.
Senator Clinton would need about 519 of them.
Of these 878 delegates 310 are superdelegates who choose who to back themselves and 568 from voters. Though mathmatically it is possible for the candidates to obtain the needed delegates from voters they would require, in Sen. Obama's case, 67% and, in the case of Sen. Clinton 91%.
Currently, therefore, it is generally assumed that there are not enough delegates available by voting in the primaries to secure the nomination, but neither are there enough Superdelegates to decide alone either. It will be a combination of the two that ultimately chooses. The voters will give the party a good indication of their choice.
In the Republican contest Senator John McCain has secured the required number for nomination, but the remaining states will still hold primaries. The amount of votes he receives will indicate to many in the party how well he is pulling the party together behind him. It also is a closed primary It is also something called a Loophole Primary. Here is a discription of what that means from thegreenpapers.com-
"The "LOOPHOLE" type of primary, in essence, is an updated version of what is the oldest form of the Presidential Preference primary. In this, there was both a presidential preference "beauty contest" vote and a separate DELEGATE SELECTION primary held at the same time: the voter had the opportunity to indicate a preferred candidate from among the list of names of presidential contenders on the top ballot but actually elected the delegates to the National Convention as individuals or on slates listed on a separate ballot directly beneath the presidential preference one. Since the actual delegates were being elected through a separate voting procedure, the presidential preference results were merely "advisory" giving this type of primary its original sobriquet. In theory, the state's National Convention delegates were to throw their support behind - and give their votes on the Convention floor to - the winner of the presidential preference "beauty contest": however, the hopes of the early supporters of the Presidential Primary were to be dashed in presidential election after presidential election as many a state's delegation often as not ignored the "advice" of the state party's rank-and-file as expressed in the preference balloting."
I hope this helps. See you all tomorrow night!
EMUJeff
Democratic nomination info as of Saturday April 19, 2008
2,025 of 4,048 for nomination
Sen. Clinton.............Sen. Obama..............Sen. Edwards
Popular Vote (w/o IA, NV, ME, WA who don’t release totals)
13,870,038................13,975,936......................952,399
Delegate Count (with est. Superdelegate totals)
....1,506........................1,646..............................18
Delegate Count (if FL and MI seated)*
....1,699........................1,718..............................31
Penn.: 158 delegates avail. (+29 Superdelegates available)
Total votes so far- 29,468,639 (difference of 670,266 votes: 270,578 undecided, 104,032 Gov. Richardson, 99,950 Rep. Kucinich, 79,782 Sen. Biden, 58,445 void, blank, no preference, or other, 34,630 Sen. Dodd, and 22,849 Sen. Gravel).
*Unseated/unseated delegates Michigan 157 delegates (128 elected, 29 super), Florida 211 (185 elected, 26 super) not included in delegate total but in voter numbers. 2,209 delegates would be needed to win nomination if these delegates are added.
Republican nomination info as of Saturday April 19, 2008
1,191 of 2,380 for nomination
..Sen. McCain...........Gov. Romney........Gov. Huckabee........Rep. Paul
Popular Vote (w/o IA, NV, ME, WA who don’t release totals)
.....7,432,372..........4,529,666...........3,907,695..........803,093
Delegate Count (with est. Superdelegate totals)
........1,293................203....................257..................28
Penn.: 62 delegates available from voters (9 elected at state convention June 6 + 3 Superdelegates)
Total votes so far- 17,729,263 (Difference of 1,056,437 votes: 586,402 Mayor Giuliani, 286,917 Sen. Thompson with 11 delegates, 90,890 among 5 other candidates, 49,816 uncommitted or no preference indicated, and 42,412 among all other candidates).
We will have results on Tuesday night with a full reporting on the final ending on Wednesday evening.
There are several outcomes from this which might have a permanent effect on the running.
There are 158 delegates available as a direct result of the Democratic Primary on that evening. There will be 35 at large delegates chosen in the overall vote with most of the rest chosen per district. The Primary is being run as a closed primary meaning only those who declare as Democrats are allowed to vote.
With around a 140 delegate lead, Senator Obama could make inroads to the nomination were he to pull more than 90 or so of the 158 available. Currently, Senator Obama requires 379 more of the remaining 878 delegates.
Senator Clinton would need about 519 of them.
Of these 878 delegates 310 are superdelegates who choose who to back themselves and 568 from voters. Though mathmatically it is possible for the candidates to obtain the needed delegates from voters they would require, in Sen. Obama's case, 67% and, in the case of Sen. Clinton 91%.
Currently, therefore, it is generally assumed that there are not enough delegates available by voting in the primaries to secure the nomination, but neither are there enough Superdelegates to decide alone either. It will be a combination of the two that ultimately chooses. The voters will give the party a good indication of their choice.
In the Republican contest Senator John McCain has secured the required number for nomination, but the remaining states will still hold primaries. The amount of votes he receives will indicate to many in the party how well he is pulling the party together behind him. It also is a closed primary It is also something called a Loophole Primary. Here is a discription of what that means from thegreenpapers.com-
"The "LOOPHOLE" type of primary, in essence, is an updated version of what is the oldest form of the Presidential Preference primary. In this, there was both a presidential preference "beauty contest" vote and a separate DELEGATE SELECTION primary held at the same time: the voter had the opportunity to indicate a preferred candidate from among the list of names of presidential contenders on the top ballot but actually elected the delegates to the National Convention as individuals or on slates listed on a separate ballot directly beneath the presidential preference one. Since the actual delegates were being elected through a separate voting procedure, the presidential preference results were merely "advisory" giving this type of primary its original sobriquet. In theory, the state's National Convention delegates were to throw their support behind - and give their votes on the Convention floor to - the winner of the presidential preference "beauty contest": however, the hopes of the early supporters of the Presidential Primary were to be dashed in presidential election after presidential election as many a state's delegation often as not ignored the "advice" of the state party's rank-and-file as expressed in the preference balloting."
I hope this helps. See you all tomorrow night!
EMUJeff